Money and investing
Everything we have published on Money and investing, newest first. Background, research and plain explanation — not only the headline of the day.
Why Inflation Happens — and Why Prices Almost Never Go Back Down
Inflation isn't one thing with one cause — here's the actual mechanism, why a slower rate doesn't mean cheaper prices, and why economists want some of it.
DIY peptide injections are risky, and people may make serious mistakes when administering them
On top of the risks of injecting untested and potentially contaminated products, user error may make this runaway wellness fad even more dangerous.
As AI reshapes newsrooms, leading media outlets are charting different paths for its use
From the BBC’s implementation of AI guardrails to Reuters’ embrace of AI tools to disseminate breaking financial news, newsrooms’ missions and values are shaping their technological futures.
Strong manufacturing and lower unemployment: when rising orders make capital more expensive
Strong manufacturing and lower unemployment can support cyclical earnings, but watch whether the pick-up in orders is being paid for with dearer capital and a higher discount rate
A rally near record highs is no match for inflation: can earnings and cash flow keep up with rising prices?
In a rally near record highs it is not enough to check whether the numbers look good; what matters is whether inflation is pushing up the price of money faster than companies can improve their margins
Hormuz: why it is not just the oil price that matters, but physical flow, insurance and margins
With Hormuz, do not watch the oil price alone but the combination of physical flow, insurance, shipping and refining margins — that is where you find out whether this is short-lived geopolitical noise or a more expensive energy regime
Two chip companies beat expectations: what that means for the rest of the market
With concentrated indices, do not watch the name of the market but the weight of a handful of the largest companies, and whether results really clear expectations that have already been paid for.
Cheap Argentine assets are not just about price: what decides the conversion into cash
With cheap Argentine assets, watch not only the value of the property but above all documented cash flow, debt and the pace of the political steps meant to turn paper value
Clipper Realty: why a better quarter may not be enough for the dividend
With heavily indebted REITs, cheering a better quarter is not enough; the key is to compare AFFO per share with the dividend and check whether anything is left after interest, maintenance and refinancing
The AI capex waterfall: does revenue growth really pay the dividend, or just pile on debt?
With AI dividend stocks it is not enough to track exposure to data centres; what matters is whether revenue growth genuinely covers the dividend out of free cash flow, without a dangerous
Natural gas rises even with a storage glut: what to watch in the EIA data and the futures curve
Treat a brief rally in gas during a storage glut as a reason to check EIA inventories, production, LNG feedgas, the weather and the whole futures curve — a genuine change of trend needs several of them moving together, not just a bounce in the front contract.
TheRealReal: GMV growth is not enough, what decides is the take rate and profit after direct costs
With marketplace stories it is not enough to watch GMV growth; what decides is the take rate, gross profit after direct costs and, for physical stores, a verifiable return after rent, wages and the cost of winning quality supply.
Memory chips: weaker guidance need not mean the end of AI. Why prices, inventories and the mix decide
Do not read weaker guidance in memory chips as the automatic end of the AI boom; separate HBM from ordinary DRAM and NAND, and watch price per bit, ASPs, bit shipments, fab utilisation and customer inventories.
Unemployment is falling, but the labour market is emptying out: people are disappearing, not jobs
A drop in unemployment is not automatically good news if it happens mainly because people are vanishing from the labour market.
The Fed without new data: how the market reprices rates through two-year yields, and why that moves bonds
When the Fed talks but no new data arrive, watch above all whether the market is repricing rates through two-year yields or merely paying a higher price for uncertainty.
Editas: beating estimates is not enough. What the revenue, its quality and the cash burn really show
With biotech results, do not dwell on the beat alone. What matters is whether the revenue is repeatable, how fast the cash is disappearing and whether the runway genuinely reduces the risk of future shareholder dilution.
Timber is getting dearer even as housing weakens: the reason is sawmills, not a building boom
Do not read rising timber prices in a weak housing market as the return of a construction boom; check whether it is only short-dated material that is getting dearer, thanks to mill curtailments, inventories and the spread between nearby and deferred contracts.