Monday, 10 August 2026
Your paper, your pace.

Our forecasts, scored

We publish specific predictions with a probability and a deadline, then grade ourselves in public — including when we were wrong.

0forecasts settled
0.000Brier score
not yet scoredverdict

The Brier score measures calibration. 0.00 is perfect, 0.25 is what you get by saying 50% to everything, and anything above 0.30 means we are guessing. Nothing is ever deleted from this page.

One good piece of thinking a day

The day's most worthwhile story, and the question underneath it. No spam, one click to leave.

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