Tuesday, 11 August 2026
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Water: five countries that ran short, and what each one did next

The world withdraws 18% of its renewable fresh water. Israel withdraws 119.6%. Cape Town halved its use in three years and then quietly doubled it again.

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The world withdraws about 18% of its renewable fresh water each year. That is the 2023 figure for the UN’s water stress indicator, and it sounds calm until you split it. Northern Africa and Western Asia withdraw 77.7%. Europe and North America withdraw 11.4%. Latin America withdraws 5.4%. Nobody drinks an average.

The indicator has one property worth understanding before you read a single country’s score. It is a fraction: what a country takes out, divided by what its rivers, lakes and aquifers renew. Water that never came from those — desalinated seawater, purified sewage, water bought from a neighbour — does not appear in either half. So a country can supply nearly all its cities without touching a river and still read 119.6%, as Israel does, and another can manufacture most of its supply and read 7.0%, as Singapore does. The number measures dependence on rain, not security.

Below are five countries that hit a limit and did something about it, measured afterwards. One built a plant and then had six years of rain. One halved its consumption in three years and has since put it all back. And one saved its groundwater by moving a date in the farming calendar, and moved a city’s smog season with it.

How this is measured

One number, named and sourced. Everything on this page is argued against it, so you can check us.

Level of water stress (UN Sustainable Development Goal indicator 6.4.2) — fresh water withdrawn as a share of available renewable freshwater resources, after subtracting environmental flow requirements %

FAO AQUASTAT, reported through the UN SDG global database, 2023 reference year

Who is actually ahead

Ranked on the number above — not on reputation.

Level of water stress (UN Sustainable Development Goal indicator 6.4.2) — fresh water withdrawn as a share of available renewable freshwater resources, after subtracting environmental flow requirements
Country Result Why
Brazil 1.4 % The Amazon and Paraná basins mean Brazil withdraws almost nothing relative to what falls. It says nothing about São Paulo, which nearly ran dry in 2015.
Norway 2.0 % Rain, snowmelt and four million people. Norway is the shape of a country that never has to think about this indicator.
Australia 4.2 % A national average across a continent. Australia scores better than Austria while running some of the most contested river basins on earth.
Singapore 7.0 % The most misleading number on this board. Singapore has almost no renewable fresh water of its own — most of its supply is imported, recycled or made from the sea, and none of that enters this ratio.
Austria 8.7 % Alpine rainfall and a small population. Austria withdraws less than a tenth of what its rivers and aquifers renew each year.
United States 24.5 % Just under the 25% threshold the UN calls the start of stress — while the Colorado basin and the Ogallala aquifer are individually in deficit.
India 65.9 % Classed as medium-to-high stress. Most of it is irrigation, and much of the irrigation runs on groundwater that is not being replaced.
Israel 119.6 % Above 100% means the country withdraws more than its rivers and aquifers renew. Israel does it anyway, because most of its drinking water no longer comes from them.

What has actually been tried

Real countries, real policies, and what the numbers did afterwards — including where it went wrong.

Singapore

Singapore built a supply that does not depend on rain. Its 1962 agreement with the Malaysian state of Johor entitles it to up to 250 million gallons a day of raw water and expires in 2061. Against that it now runs five NEWater factories, which purify treated sewage, and five desalination plants, alongside local catchment. Total demand is about 440 million gallons a day.

What happened. Household use fell from 165 litres per person per day in 2003 to 141 in 2023, after rising to 158 during the pandemic. NEWater was targeted to supply up to 55% of demand by 2060. The national water agency states that by 2065, when total demand could almost double, NEWater and desalination will meet the majority of it.

The catch. The bill is electricity. Water made from the sea or from sewage costs energy in a way that water taken from a river does not, and Singapore imports its fuel too. It is also why Singapore scores 7.0% on this page's measure: a supply that does not come from renewable freshwater resources never appears in the fraction.

Ministry of Sustainability and the Environment, Singapore — water policy; Public Utilities Board — Singapore's Water Loop; National Library Board — NEWater (figures valid as at December 2018)

Israel

Israel did two things at once: it built five large seawater desalination plants on the Mediterranean between 2005 and 2015, and it plumbed its sewers into its farms. Treated wastewater is piped to irrigation rather than to the sea.

What happened. A 2023 report by a United States Environmental Protection Agency delegation put reuse at nearly 90% of Israel's treated wastewater, going to irrigation, as of 2022. The Sorek plant alone produces 624,000 cubic metres a day, serving over 1.5 million people and about 20% of national municipal demand. Some utilities have cut water lost in the pipes to under 5%.

The catch. Good sources disagree on how much of Israel's drinking water is desalinated. The EPA report says about 90% of the domestic freshwater supply. Mekorot's vice-president for engineering told the Times of Israel in August 2023 it was 60% to 80%. Fanack Water, citing Kramer and colleagues (2022), says the five plants make 50% of potable water. The honest answer is somewhere in that range, and it depends what you count.

US Environmental Protection Agency, 'From water stressed to water secure: lessons from Israel's water reuse approach', EPA-822-S-23-001, March 2023

South Africa

Cape Town ran out. Three dry winters from 2015 emptied the dams to 39% by November 2017, and the city named a date — Day Zero — on which taps would be shut and residents would queue at collection points. It answered with punitive tariffs, level 6B restrictions from 1 February 2018, pressure reduction across the network and about 250,000 water management devices installed on household meters.

What happened. Daily consumption fell from 1,200 million litres in February 2015 to 511 million litres by 12 March 2018 — a drop of 689 million litres a day, 400 million of it in the final year alone. Day Zero never arrived, and by July 2023 the dams were close to full.

The catch. It did not last. In February 2026 Cape Town was using 1,056 million litres a day, or 212 litres per person against a world average of 120 to 160, and missing its own summer target of under 975. About 23% of the water is lost to leaks before it reaches anyone. Crisis behaviour is not a policy; it expires.

GroundUp — 'How Cape Town more than halved its water usage' (13 March 2018) and 'Cape Town's water use remains too high despite Day Zero lessons' (3 February 2026)

Australia

After the Millennium Drought, Sydney built a reverse-osmosis desalination plant at Kurnell for about A$1.9 billion, able to produce 250 million litres a day — up to 15% of the city's water. It was switched on in January 2010. Then it rained.

What happened. The plant was ordered to stop producing on 1 July 2012, when dam storage passed 90%. It restarted only after storage fell below 60% on 27 January 2019, and delivered water again from March 2019. That is roughly six and a half years in which it made no water. The regulator IPART estimated in December 2018 that a typical Sydney household paid around $85 a year for the plant's fixed costs in shutdown mode, plus about $45 more once it ran.

The catch. An insurance policy you never claim on is not the same as money wasted, and the plant did carry Sydney through the 2019–20 drought. But the fair reading is that the timing was wrong, not the idea: the asset was bought at the bottom of a drought and paid for through the wettest years that followed.

Sydney Desalination Plant — operational information; IPART, 'Indicative bill impact for Sydney Water customers', 19 December 2018

India

Punjab's aquifers were being drained by rice grown through the hottest, driest weeks of the year. The Punjab Preservation of Subsoil Water Act of 2009, and Haryana's twin law, banned sowing rice nurseries and transplanting before fixed June dates, so that the crop would drink monsoon rain instead of groundwater.

What happened. It worked on water. Modelling published in npj Clean Air in May 2025 found the rate of groundwater decline slowed from 6.23 centimetres a year before 2009 to 3.35 centimetres a year after. But the whole calendar moved with it: peak stubble burning shifted about 15 days later, from around 25 October to around 10 November, into the still, cold weeks when Delhi's air stops clearing.

The catch. The same study modelled daily mean PM2.5 over Delhi rising by roughly 60 micrograms per cubic metre, from about 170 to about 230 — a 36% increase — with severe air quality hours up 92% once aerosol-radiation feedback is included, and attributes around 200 deaths and nearly 10,000 years of life lost per season. It is a modelling study covering 2017 to 2021, not a direct measurement, and late burning has other causes too, including combine harvesting and the short gap before wheat sowing.

Ghude et al., 'The role of atmospheric feedback and groundwater conservation policies in degrading air quality in Delhi', npj Clean Air, 21 May 2025

What a machine would optimise for

This is arithmetic, not advice and not a prediction. We name the single number being maximised and follow it wherever it goes. The point is to see the shape of the answer a calculator gives.

The number being maximised

The single number is the level of water stress: annual freshwater withdrawal divided by renewable freshwater resources, expressed as a percentage. Push it down and treat everything else as noise.

  1. Attack the numerator by leaving the denominator. Water made from seawater or from treated sewage is not withdrawn from a renewable resource, so it does not enter the fraction at all. Israel supplies most of its cities that way and still reads 119.6%, which tells you the indicator was never measuring what comes out of the tap.
  2. Repair pipes before changing behaviour. Cape Town loses about 23% of what it puts into the network. Leaks have no opinions, no habits and no election cycle, and every litre saved there is a litre not withdrawn.
  3. Move the crop rather than the water. Punjab shifted rice transplanting into the monsoon and cut the rate of groundwater decline from 6.23 to 3.35 centimetres a year — a bigger change than any tariff produced, achieved by editing a date in a calendar.
  4. Optimise the national average, because that is what the indicator is. A calculator maximising this score has no reason to notice a single city, basin or aquifer running dry, provided the country as a whole withdraws less than it renews.

The arithmetic

Cape Town, February 2026: 1,056 million litres a day, 212 litres per person, roughly 23% lost to leaks. That is about 243 million litres a day going into the ground. Recover half of it and the city delivers 935 million litres a day — under its own 975 target — with nobody taking a shorter shower. Recover all of it and consumption per person falls to about 163 litres, near the top of the world's normal range, again with no behaviour changed at all.

What the machine would miss

The most important part of this page. A number that goes up can still be paid for by somebody, and some things never make it into the number at all.

Who pays

Sydney Water customers paid roughly $85 a year in fixed charges for a plant that produced nothing from 1 July 2012 until March 2019. Delhi paid in a different currency: the Punjab law was written 400 kilometres away and never mentioned air, yet Ghude and colleagues attribute to its calendar shift about 200 deaths and nearly 10,000 years of life lost in a single burning season.

What the number flattens

Water stress is a national annual average, and water is neither national nor annual. Australia reads 4.2% while the Murray-Darling is fought over in court. The United States reads 24.5%, just inside the safe band, while the Colorado does not reach the sea. A country can look comfortable on this page and still have a city counting down to a date when the taps close.

What a spreadsheet cannot see

Whose litres get cut. In Cape Town a 50-litre daily limit meant one thing to a household with a garden and a pool and something else entirely to a household sharing a standpipe, yet both appear in the total as the same saving. And the Punjabi farmer burning his stubble is obeying one law while breaking another, because between rice harvest and wheat sowing there are barely two weeks and no machine he can afford.

Where does your country stand?

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Where the numbers come from

We are a newspaper, not a government and not an adviser. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to you or to anyone in office. It is what was tried, what it measured, and what a calculator would say if you let it loose on the same problem.

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